China Will Not Consider Changes To One-Child Policy For At Least 10 Years, Official Says

China's National Population and Family Planning Commission Minister Zhang Weiqing on Monday said the country would not change its one-child-per-family policy for at least 10 years, the Wall Street Journal reports (Chao, Wall Street Journal, 3/11). Speculation arose in recent weeks that officials were considering significantly changing the policy after Zhao Baige, a vice minister in the national family planning commission, was quoted as saying that China was studying how it could move away from the one-child policy. Zhang said that such changes would cause "serious problems," as well as strain economic and social growth in the country. "Given such a large population base, there would be major fluctuations in population growth if we abandoned the one-child rule now," Zhang said.

The policy limits most urban couples to one child and most rural couples to two children, the New York Times reports. According to the Times, critics of the policy say it has led to "numerous abuses," including forced abortions. The policy also is considered to have contributed to China's gender imbalance. China is currently the most populous country, with 1.3 billion people. The China Daily reported that the population is growing at 17 million people a year. Government officials have said that the one-child policy has prevented about 400 million births, although some independent scholars have placed the level at closer to 250 million (Yardley, New York Times, 3/11).

Zhang said the one-child limit is strictly enforced among only 35.9% of the population living in large cities. He added that the 52.9% of the population living in rural areas can have two children if their first child is a girl and that 11% of the population, mostly ethnic minorities, can have two or more children (York, Globe and Mail, 3/11). Zhang said that officials might consider a change in the policy "if there is need" after an anticipated "birth peak" over the next decade, when 200 million people in the country are expected to enter childbearing years.

According to the AP/Boston Herald, the total fertility rate in China is 1.8 children per couple, below the replacement level of 2.1 children per couple (AP/Boston Herald, 3/10).

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